OPEC+ Agrees in Principle to Keep November Oil Output Targets Unchanged
OPEC+ has agreed in principle to keep its oil production targets unchanged for November, three sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters, as the group faces continuing disruption to Gulf oil exports caused by the war involving Iran.
The decision comes as the world's major oil-producing alliance attempts to balance concerns over supply disruptions, elevated energy prices and uncertainty surrounding its production capacity. The group has been gradually increasing its output targets during 2026 after years of production cuts, but actual production has remained significantly below some targets because of the conflict in the Middle East.
November targets expected to remain unchanged
The seven core OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — were due to meet on Sunday to discuss production policy.
Three sources close to the talks said the group had reached an agreement in principle to maintain the current targets for November. The sources spoke anonymously because the discussions were not yet public.
The decision would extend the group's cautious approach after OPEC+ kept its October targets unchanged.
Although OPEC+ has raised production targets for much of this year, the increases have not fully translated into additional physical supply because producers in the Gulf have faced major export disruptions.
Iran war disrupts Gulf oil exports
The continuing conflict involving Iran has significantly affected oil flows in the region.
According to the sources cited by Reuters, Gulf OPEC+ producers have been operating well below their production targets, while exports have fluctuated at around 60% to 80% of normal levels in recent months.
The disruption has added uncertainty to the global oil market at a time when crude prices are already elevated.
The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important to global energy markets because it is a major route for oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Iran has said the waterway will remain closed until certain conditions are met, adding another layer of uncertainty for international energy supplies.
Actual production remains below targets
OPEC+ has increased its nominal production targets during 2026 after gradually rolling back earlier supply cuts.
However, actual output has not kept pace with those increases.
The seven core OPEC+ members produced around 25 million barrels per day in August, according to OPEC data cited by Reuters. That was an increase of approximately 630,000 barrels per day from July, but production was still about 5 million barrels per day below February's pre-war level.
The gap between official targets and actual production highlights the impact of infrastructure damage, export disruptions and broader logistical difficulties caused by the regional conflict.
Around 2 million barrels per day of cuts remain
Despite the gradual increase in targets, OPEC+ still has roughly 2 million barrels per day of production cuts covering most members through the end of 2026.
The group now faces an important decision over how those cuts should be handled in 2027.
A major capacity review is expected to help determine new production baselines for individual members. The review has been delayed because the Middle East conflict disrupted planned expansion projects and made it harder to assess future production capacity.
The review is now expected to be completed around mid-November, according to sources cited by Reuters.
2027 quotas remain a major issue
The capacity assessment will be important because it could influence how much oil individual OPEC+ members are permitted to produce next year.
Countries that have expanded their production capacity are seeking higher quotas, while producers with lower assessed capacity could face more limited production allowances.
The United Arab Emirates had previously pushed for a larger quota reflecting its increased capacity, but it left the OPEC+ alliance in May following disagreements over production limits. Iraq has also sought a higher quota and has previously considered its future relationship with the group.
For now, however, the alliance appears focused on maintaining stability rather than making another major adjustment to its output targets.
What the decision could mean for oil prices
Keeping November targets unchanged could provide some stability to an already volatile oil market.
Crude prices have been supported by continuing geopolitical risks, disruptions to regional exports and concerns about fuel supplies. Reuters reported last week that Brent crude's November contract had gained around 14% during September, while the more actively traded December contract also rose sharply.
If physical supplies remain disrupted while OPEC+ keeps official targets unchanged, the market could remain sensitive to developments in the Iran conflict and the reopening of major export routes.
For oil-importing countries such as India, sustained high crude prices could increase pressure on fuel costs, trade balances and inflation.
OPEC+ takes cautious approach
The expected November decision reflects the difficult circumstances facing OPEC+.
The alliance is attempting to gradually unwind earlier production cuts while dealing with a major regional conflict that has disrupted exports and complicated its assessment of future production capacity.
Maintaining November targets would allow the group to monitor how quickly Gulf exports recover before making larger changes to supply policy.
The next major test will come with the capacity review and the negotiations over 2027 production quotas.
For the global oil market, however, the immediate focus will remain on the Iran conflict, the security of key shipping routes and whether Gulf producers can restore exports to normal levels.
Source attribution: Reuters and OPEC data cited by Reuters.
Nayara Energy Raises Petrol by ₹5 and Diesel by ₹3 Amid Rising Oil Costs
Nayara Energy has increased the prices of petrol and diesel at its fuel stations across India, raising petrol by ₹5 per litre and diesel by ₹3 per litre amid a sharp rise in international crude oil and refined fuel prices.
The revised prices came into effect from October 3, according to reports. Nayara Energy operates more than 7,000 fuel stations across the country.
The increase comes at a time when global energy markets are facing significant supply disruptions and higher crude oil prices, putting pressure on fuel retailers and their marketing margins.
Why Nayara Increased Fuel Prices
International crude oil prices have risen substantially in recent weeks as disruptions to oil supplies and shipping routes have affected global energy markets.
The increase in the cost of crude and refined petroleum products has raised the amount fuel companies have to pay to procure and market petrol and diesel.
Nayara's latest move effectively passes part of those higher costs on to consumers at its retail outlets.
The company had made a similar increase earlier this year, raising petrol by ₹5 and diesel by ₹3 per litre. Those increases were later withdrawn after international oil prices eased.
Petrol and Diesel Prices Under Pressure
India imports a large share of its crude oil requirements, meaning changes in international crude prices can significantly affect the economics of domestic fuel marketing.
However, retail petrol and diesel prices in India do not always move immediately with international crude prices. State-owned oil marketing companies have historically adjusted prices at different intervals depending on market conditions and government policy.
The latest Nayara increase therefore comes as the country's fuel retailers face a difficult pricing environment.
Pressure on Private Fuel Retailers
Nayara is one of India's major private fuel retailers and operates a large network of petrol pumps.
Private companies have faced pressure when retail fuel prices remain below the cost of purchasing crude and refined products. The situation can become more challenging when international oil prices rise rapidly.
Earlier reports also highlighted supply and margin pressures faced by private fuel retailers, with the government asking companies to maintain adequate supplies of petrol and diesel at their outlets.
Possible Impact on Consumers
The immediate impact of the latest increase will be felt by customers purchasing fuel at Nayara-operated stations.
Higher diesel prices can also affect transportation companies, logistics operators, agricultural users and businesses that depend heavily on diesel-powered vehicles and machinery.
If higher fuel costs persist across the wider market, they could also increase transportation expenses and add pressure to the prices of goods and services.
However, the overall impact on India's fuel prices will depend on international crude prices, refinery costs, currency movements and the pricing decisions of other fuel retailers.
What Happens Next
Nayara's decision comes amid heightened uncertainty in global energy markets.
Whether other private or state-owned fuel companies make similar changes will depend on how long international oil prices remain elevated and whether supply conditions improve.
For consumers, the latest increase highlights the sensitivity of domestic fuel costs to developments in the international oil market.
Source attribution: Moneycontrol, Reuters, Business Standard and other reported industry sources.
Rupee Falls to Two-Month Low as Global Bond Selloff and Higher Oil Prices Add Pressure
The Indian rupee weakened to a two-month low against the US dollar on Thursday as a global selloff in government bonds pushed borrowing costs higher and rising crude oil prices added fresh pressure on India's import bill.
The rupee ended at ₹96.315 per US dollar, down around 0.5% on the day. It was the currency's sharpest single-day decline in more than two months and came after the rupee breached the psychologically important ₹96 level.
The decline came amid a broad rise in global bond yields. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to about 5.34%, its highest level since 2002, according to Reuters. Higher US yields can make dollar-denominated assets more attractive and put pressure on emerging-market currencies such as the rupee.
Foreign investors add to pressure
Foreign portfolio outflows have also been weighing on the Indian currency.
Overseas investors have been reducing exposure to Indian equities and debt as global financial conditions become less favourable. The resulting demand for dollars has added to pressure on the rupee.
The rupee's decline has occurred alongside weakness in several other Asian currencies, while the US dollar index moved higher. Reuters reported that Asian currencies were down between roughly 0.1% and 0.4% on Thursday.
State-run banks were reported to have sold dollars during the session, helping limit the rupee's decline
Oil prices cross $100
Higher crude oil prices are another major concern for India, which imports a large share of its crude oil requirements.
Brent crude moved back above $100 a barrel as supply concerns and disruptions in global energy markets increased. Higher oil prices raise the cost of India's imports and can increase demand for US dollars from Indian oil companies.
This creates an additional challenge for the rupee because a weaker currency makes dollar-priced commodities such as crude oil more expensive in rupee terms.
Global bond yields hit markets
The bond-market selloff was not limited to the United States. Borrowing costs also rose across several major economies, including France, Britain and Japan.
Higher government bond yields can increase financing costs for governments and companies while reducing the relative attractiveness of riskier assets. The move has therefore affected currencies, equities and credit markets simultaneously.
Indian government bond yields also rose, with the benchmark 10-year yield reaching its highest level in more than two years, according to Reuters.
What it means for India
A sustained period of high oil prices and a weaker rupee could increase pressure on India's import costs and inflation outlook.
Higher energy costs can feed into transportation, manufacturing and other parts of the economy. At the same time, continued foreign portfolio selling can put additional pressure on domestic financial markets.
The Indian government said on Thursday that supply disruptions, volatile energy prices and global uncertainty could pose near-term risks to inflation, the rupee and capital flows.
However, the impact will depend on how long elevated oil prices and global bond yields persist and how global capital flows evolve.
Markets await US jobs data
Investors are also watching the latest US labour-market data for clues about the future path of US interest rates.
Stronger-than-expected US economic data could reinforce expectations for higher interest rates and potentially support the dollar, while weaker data could ease some of the pressure on global bond markets.
Indian financial markets were scheduled to remain closed on October 2 for Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti, meaning investors will assess the next available market session for the rupee's response to further moves in global currencies, bonds and crude oil.
For now, the combination of elevated oil prices, high global borrowing costs and foreign investor outflows remains an important source of pressure on the Indian currency.
Source attribution: This report is based primarily on Reuters market reporting and supporting current financial-market coverage. Figures and market levels refer to the October 1, 2026 trading session.