Global Energy Market

OPEC+ has agreed in principle to keep its oil production targets unchanged for November, three sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters, as the group faces continuing disruption to Gulf oil exports caused by the war involving Iran.

The decision comes as the world's major oil-producing alliance attempts to balance concerns over supply disruptions, elevated energy prices and uncertainty surrounding its production capacity. The group has been gradually increasing its output targets during 2026 after years of production cuts, but actual production has remained significantly below some targets because of the conflict in the Middle East.

November targets expected to remain unchanged

The seven core OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — were due to meet on Sunday to discuss production policy.

Three sources close to the talks said the group had reached an agreement in principle to maintain the current targets for November. The sources spoke anonymously because the discussions were not yet public.

The decision would extend the group's cautious approach after OPEC+ kept its October targets unchanged.

Although OPEC+ has raised production targets for much of this year, the increases have not fully translated into additional physical supply because producers in the Gulf have faced major export disruptions.

Iran war disrupts Gulf oil exports

The continuing conflict involving Iran has significantly affected oil flows in the region.

According to the sources cited by Reuters, Gulf OPEC+ producers have been operating well below their production targets, while exports have fluctuated at around 60% to 80% of normal levels in recent months.

The disruption has added uncertainty to the global oil market at a time when crude prices are already elevated.

The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important to global energy markets because it is a major route for oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Iran has said the waterway will remain closed until certain conditions are met, adding another layer of uncertainty for international energy supplies.

Actual production remains below targets

OPEC+ has increased its nominal production targets during 2026 after gradually rolling back earlier supply cuts.

However, actual output has not kept pace with those increases.

The seven core OPEC+ members produced around 25 million barrels per day in August, according to OPEC data cited by Reuters. That was an increase of approximately 630,000 barrels per day from July, but production was still about 5 million barrels per day below February's pre-war level.

The gap between official targets and actual production highlights the impact of infrastructure damage, export disruptions and broader logistical difficulties caused by the regional conflict.

Around 2 million barrels per day of cuts remain

Despite the gradual increase in targets, OPEC+ still has roughly 2 million barrels per day of production cuts covering most members through the end of 2026.

The group now faces an important decision over how those cuts should be handled in 2027.

A major capacity review is expected to help determine new production baselines for individual members. The review has been delayed because the Middle East conflict disrupted planned expansion projects and made it harder to assess future production capacity.

The review is now expected to be completed around mid-November, according to sources cited by Reuters.

2027 quotas remain a major issue

The capacity assessment will be important because it could influence how much oil individual OPEC+ members are permitted to produce next year.

Countries that have expanded their production capacity are seeking higher quotas, while producers with lower assessed capacity could face more limited production allowances.

The United Arab Emirates had previously pushed for a larger quota reflecting its increased capacity, but it left the OPEC+ alliance in May following disagreements over production limits. Iraq has also sought a higher quota and has previously considered its future relationship with the group.

For now, however, the alliance appears focused on maintaining stability rather than making another major adjustment to its output targets.

What the decision could mean for oil prices

Keeping November targets unchanged could provide some stability to an already volatile oil market.

Crude prices have been supported by continuing geopolitical risks, disruptions to regional exports and concerns about fuel supplies. Reuters reported last week that Brent crude's November contract had gained around 14% during September, while the more actively traded December contract also rose sharply.

If physical supplies remain disrupted while OPEC+ keeps official targets unchanged, the market could remain sensitive to developments in the Iran conflict and the reopening of major export routes.

For oil-importing countries such as India, sustained high crude prices could increase pressure on fuel costs, trade balances and inflation.

OPEC+ takes cautious approach

The expected November decision reflects the difficult circumstances facing OPEC+.

The alliance is attempting to gradually unwind earlier production cuts while dealing with a major regional conflict that has disrupted exports and complicated its assessment of future production capacity.

Maintaining November targets would allow the group to monitor how quickly Gulf exports recover before making larger changes to supply policy.

The next major test will come with the capacity review and the negotiations over 2027 production quotas.

For the global oil market, however, the immediate focus will remain on the Iran conflict, the security of key shipping routes and whether Gulf producers can restore exports to normal levels.

Source attribution: Reuters and OPEC data cited by Reuters.