PSOE

Spain is heading towards its November 29 general election with the country's conservative and right-wing parties holding a combined advantage in several opinion polls. The opposition People's Party (PP), led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, is ahead of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) in the latest surveys, while the right-wing Vox party is positioned to play a major role in determining the next government.

The contest is not simply about which party finishes first. The larger question is whether the PP and Vox can secure enough parliamentary seats to form a governing majority in the 350-member Congress of Deputies.

A poll published on November 9 by 40dB for El País and Cadena SER placed the PP at 31.9% and the PSOE at 29.9%. Although the difference between the two main parties is relatively narrow, the survey suggested that the combined right-wing bloc could secure more than 190 seats, including support from the regional Union of the Navarrese People (UPN). A minimum of 176 seats is required for an absolute majority.

The findings indicate that the PP could emerge as the largest party while relying on Vox and other parliamentary support to form a government.

PP Leads the Main Party Contest

The latest 40dB survey puts the PP two percentage points ahead of the Socialists in voting intention. The PSOE has recovered some support compared with the previous survey by the same polling organisation, narrowing the gap between the two largest parties.

The PP is projected to receive 31.9% of the vote and approximately 129 seats. The PSOE is placed at 29.9%, with a projected 119 seats.

These figures show that the race for the position of largest party remains competitive. However, the overall parliamentary balance appears more favourable to the right-wing parties when Vox and UPN are included.

The latest survey was conducted from November 2 to 4 among 2,000 eligible voters. Its reported margin of error is approximately 2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The PP-PSOE difference therefore falls within the stated margin of error, making it important not to interpret the figures as a settled outcome.

Vox Could Become a Decisive Coalition Partner

Vox, led by Santiago Abascal, is another major factor in the election. The party has strengthened its position compared with the 2023 general election and is projected to win substantially more parliamentary seats.

In the November 9 survey, Vox was projected to receive around 18% of the vote and approximately 61 seats. That would represent a considerable increase from the 33 seats it won in 2023.

The party's performance could determine whether the PP has enough parliamentary support to govern. If the current projections translate into election results, negotiations between the two parties could become central to the formation of Spain's next government.

The relationship between the PP and Vox will therefore be closely watched during the final weeks of the campaign. Their positions on immigration, housing, regional politics and public policy could influence the terms of any future parliamentary agreement.

Polling Shows Differences Between Surveys

Although several surveys indicate an advantage for the right-wing bloc, polling organisations do not produce identical results.

An election polling average updated on November 9 placed the PP at approximately 31.4%, the PSOE at 26.4% and Vox at 19.1%. This broader average suggests a larger gap between the main parties than the latest 40dB survey.

Other surveys published earlier in November also placed the PP ahead of the PSOE, although the size of the difference varied.

The differences reflect the methods, fieldwork dates, samples and assumptions used by individual polling organisations. Polling averages can provide a broader picture, but they are not election results or guarantees of how parliamentary seats will eventually be distributed.

The Socialist Party's recent improvement in some surveys also suggests that the campaign could remain competitive as voters make their final decisions.

Housing and Immigration Among Key Election Issues

Housing is expected to be one of the central subjects of the campaign. Rising property costs, rental affordability and access to homes have become major concerns for many Spanish households, particularly younger people and residents of large cities.

The issue has also become a source of political disagreement between the government and opposition parties. The PSOE has presented housing affordability as an area requiring public intervention, while the PP and Vox have criticised aspects of the government's approach.

Immigration is another major campaign issue. Sánchez has defended immigration as economically and socially important, while Vox has called for much stricter controls. The PP has also placed border management and immigration policy among its political priorities.

Corruption allegations and questions about political accountability are likely to feature in debates between the major parties. The government and opposition are expected to use the campaign to defend their records and challenge each other's credibility.

Deadly Train Crash Adds Another Political Dimension

The aftermath of last month's deadly train collision is also expected to influence the election campaign.

The disaster, which killed 69 people on the Madrid-Seville high-speed line, led to the resignation of Transport Minister Óscar Puente. The incident has brought railway safety, public infrastructure and government accountability into the political debate.

The opposition is likely to scrutinise the government's handling of transport safety and the circumstances surrounding the accident. The government, meanwhile, will face questions about its response and the measures required to prevent similar incidents.

It remains uncertain how much the tragedy will influence voting decisions. Polling conducted immediately after the incident cannot establish that the crash or the minister's resignation directly changed voter preferences.

Final Campaign Phase Approaches

With the election scheduled for November 29, political parties are preparing to intensify their public campaigns. The final period will be important for persuading undecided voters and consolidating support among existing party bases.

For the PP, the challenge will be to convert its polling advantage into sufficient parliamentary representation and establish a workable governing arrangement. For the PSOE, narrowing the gap and maintaining support among centre-left voters will be crucial.

Vox will be seeking to translate its polling strength into a larger parliamentary presence, potentially giving it greater influence over the next government's formation and policy direction.

Analysis: The central feature of Spain's election is the difference between leading the party vote and securing a parliamentary majority. The PP's advantage over the PSOE is relatively small in the latest individual poll, but the combined strength of the PP and Vox gives the right-wing bloc a stronger position in seat projections. The final result will depend on turnout, regional contests, undecided voters and the distribution of parliamentary seats.