security guarantees

Diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war have returned to the negotiating table in Abu Dhabi, where representatives of Moscow, Kyiv and Washington are meeting for a fresh round of US-mediated discussions. The two-day talks, scheduled for November 10 and 11, are taking place amid cautious signals that both sides may be willing to show some flexibility on difficult questions, including territory and future security arrangements.

The renewed negotiations are the first trilateral round since February. US officials have indicated that private discussions have revealed some room for movement, even though Russia and Ukraine continue to maintain sharply different public positions. Washington sees the possibility of progress, but no immediate peace agreement is expected from the Abu Dhabi meeting.

Security guarantees at the centre of discussions

One of the most important subjects expected to dominate the negotiations is Ukraine's security after a possible end to the fighting.

Kyiv wants firm guarantees that Russia will not launch another invasion if a ceasefire or peace agreement is reached. Ukrainian officials have discussed arrangements modelled on Article 5 of NATO's founding treaty, under which an attack on one member is treated as an attack on all.

The US proposal is expected to explore what kind of commitments Washington and its partners could offer Ukraine, how those commitments would work and what response would follow if a future attack occurred.

The issue is important because Ukraine does not want a temporary pause in fighting that could allow Russia to rebuild its military strength and resume the war later. Kyiv is seeking a framework that would make any settlement more durable.

Russia, meanwhile, wants its own security concerns included in a wider agreement. Moscow has repeatedly criticised NATO's expansion and military presence in Eastern Europe. A Russian delegation source has described the creation of a broader European security framework as a central objective of the Abu Dhabi discussions.

This means the talks may extend beyond the immediate question of stopping the war and examine how security arrangements across Europe could be structured after the conflict.

Territorial dispute remains the hardest issue

The future of eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas region and Donetsk, is likely to be among the most difficult subjects.

Russia continues to demand control over the entire Donbas region, including areas that Ukrainian forces still hold. Ukraine rejects the idea of voluntarily surrendering territory and has argued that any territorial settlement must respect its sovereignty and be linked to credible security guarantees.

US officials have said that both sides have privately shown some flexibility on the possibility of territorial compromise. However, this does not mean that either government has publicly accepted a change in its position.

The order in which the issues are discussed may prove important. American officials have suggested that the territorial question is unlikely to be settled before the sides make progress on security arrangements. In other words, negotiators first need to understand what kind of post-war framework would protect both countries before attempting to resolve the question of borders.

The territorial issue could therefore remain unresolved even if the Abu Dhabi meeting produces progress on other subjects.

Military and political tracks

The negotiations are expected to cover both military and political questions.

The military track is likely to examine how a possible ceasefire could be monitored, what mechanisms could verify violations and how security arrangements would operate if the fighting stopped. Such discussions could include communication channels between military authorities, monitoring procedures and ways to prevent local incidents from escalating.

The political track will have to address the more sensitive questions, especially territory, sovereignty and the future relationship between Ukraine and Russia.

A separate but connected issue is the possibility of reducing attacks on energy infrastructure. A previous attempt to establish a pause in strikes against energy targets did not hold. Renewed discussion of such restrictions could be relevant as winter approaches, when damage to electricity and heating systems can create serious difficulties for civilians.

The Abu Dhabi discussions may also consider practical steps involving the Black Sea and the movement of food supplies. These subjects could offer opportunities for limited agreements even if a comprehensive peace settlement remains out of reach.

Who is taking part?

The United States is leading the mediation effort through President Donald Trump's special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

Ukraine's delegation is led by Rustem Umerov, with senior officials including presidential chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov and other experienced representatives. Kyiv's team is seeking a ceasefire and security arrangements that would protect the country from renewed Russian military action.

Russia's delegation is led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky. It also includes senior diplomatic and military figures, among them Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. The composition of the Russian team indicates that Moscow wants the discussions to cover wider diplomatic and security questions as well as the immediate conflict.

European representatives are also present in Abu Dhabi, although Russia has opposed their participation in the direct trilateral negotiations. Ukrainian officials are expected to hold separate consultations with European partners on the discussions and on the continent's future security.

What could come out of the Abu Dhabi meeting?

The immediate objective is not necessarily to sign a final peace agreement. A more realistic near-term outcome could be an understanding on which subjects should be negotiated next, agreement to continue discussions through working groups, or progress on specific military and humanitarian arrangements.

A mechanism for monitoring a ceasefire, steps to reduce attacks on energy facilities, or progress on Black Sea security could provide a starting point for further negotiations. Any such development would still need agreement from the governments involved and a clear plan for implementation.

The main obstacle remains the gap between Russia's territorial demands and Ukraine's refusal to give up land. Security guarantees are closely connected to that dispute, making it difficult to settle one issue without addressing the other.

The reported private flexibility has therefore created an opening for discussion, not proof that a compromise has been reached. The two days in Abu Dhabi will test whether that limited room for movement can be turned into practical steps.

For now, the focus remains on the negotiating table: whether the three delegations can identify common ground on security, territory and a possible ceasefire, and whether the renewed process can continue beyond this round.