Stock Market Today: GIFT Nifty Signals Weak Opening for Sensex, Nifty 50; Wipro, Nestlé and Tech Mahindra in Focus
Indian equity markets are expected to face a cautious start on Thursday, October 15, as weakness across global technology stocks, rising crude oil prices and concerns about US inflation weigh on investor sentiment. The Sensex and Nifty 50 will also be influenced by fresh quarterly earnings from major companies, including Wipro, Nestlé India and Tech Mahindra.
GIFT Nifty is an important indicator of the market’s potential opening direction. However, its latest live reading should be checked before publication, as futures prices can change quickly before the Indian market opens.
The previous session ended lower. On Wednesday, October 14, the Nifty 50 declined 99 points, or 0.44%, to close at 22,622.70, while the BSE Sensex fell 0.34% to 72,781.89. Higher oil prices and continued foreign investor outflows weighed on sentiment.
1. GIFT Nifty and Global Market Cues
Investors will monitor GIFT Nifty for clues about the opening direction of domestic benchmarks. A weaker futures signal can indicate a lower start, but it does not guarantee how the market will trade throughout the session.
Global markets are facing pressure after US inflation data came in hotter than expected. Asian shares fell on Thursday, led by sharp losses in South Korea and weakness in Japan. Technology and artificial-intelligence-linked stocks were among the sectors under pressure.
The direction of global technology shares is particularly relevant for Indian IT companies, which generate a substantial portion of their revenue from overseas clients.
2. US Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy
Fresh concerns about US inflation have raised questions about the future path of interest rates. Higher rates can increase borrowing costs and put pressure on equity valuations, particularly in sectors where share prices depend heavily on expectations of future growth.
Reuters reported that the stronger US inflation reading increased market expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase. Investors will watch further economic data and comments from central-bank officials for clues about monetary policy.
For Indian markets, changes in US bond yields, the dollar and global risk appetite can influence foreign portfolio investment and currency movements.
3. Crude Oil Prices Remain a Key Risk
Crude oil remains another important factor for Indian equities. Higher oil prices can increase India's import bill and add pressure to inflation, corporate costs and the current-account balance.
Energy supply concerns have pushed oil prices higher amid renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters.
Investors will monitor energy prices closely because sustained increases could affect sectors such as aviation, paints, chemicals, logistics and oil-dependent manufacturing.
4. Wipro Q2 Results in Focus
Wipro is scheduled to announce its September-quarter results on October 15. Investors will look at revenue growth, operating margins, demand conditions and management's outlook for the coming quarter.
Analysts have highlighted weak demand, pricing pressure and the potential impact of artificial intelligence on traditional IT services as factors to watch. The company's guidance for the next quarter could be particularly important in shaping market expectations.
The results may also influence sentiment towards other listed Indian IT companies.
5. Nestlé India and Tech Mahindra Earnings
Nestlé India is also scheduled to report its Q2 FY2027 results on Thursday. Investors will focus on sales growth, demand, product volumes, margins and the impact of input costs.
Brokerage previews have pointed to the possibility of improved revenue growth, supported by consumer demand and distribution strength, although actual results may differ from estimates.
Tech Mahindra is another major company on the earnings calendar. Investors will examine its revenue performance, profitability, deal wins and commentary on demand from global clients. Its results could provide additional information about the recovery prospects of the IT services sector.
What Should Investors Watch Today?
Market participants will track several developments during Thursday's session:
• GIFT Nifty's latest movement before the opening bell.
• Asian market performance and overnight US trading.
• Crude oil prices and developments affecting global energy supplies.
• Wipro, Nestlé India and Tech Mahindra's quarterly results.
• Foreign institutional investor activity and the movement of the rupee.
• Company guidance and broader market breadth after Wednesday's decline.
A weak opening does not necessarily mean that the market will remain lower throughout the day. Corporate earnings, global cues and intraday buying or selling can change the direction of both benchmark indices.
Market takeaway: Thursday's trading is likely to be shaped by a combination of global risk sentiment and domestic earnings. Investors should verify live market data and company announcements before making trading decisions.
Stock Market Today: Sensex, Nifty Eye Opening Cues as GIFT Nifty, Canara Bank and BHEL Take Centre Stage
Indian equity markets are set for another closely watched session on Wednesday, October 14, as investors assess global market signals, quarterly earnings announcements and movements in crude oil prices. The headline points to a potentially weaker opening for the Sensex and Nifty 50, although the opening direction should be confirmed using the latest GIFT Nifty data before the market begins trading.
The focus is also on Canara Bank, which is scheduled to consider its September-quarter results, while investors will monitor developments involving Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) and other companies reporting or drawing attention during the second-quarter earnings season.
Sensex and Nifty 50: What Happened in the Previous Session?
Indian benchmark indices staged a strong recovery on Tuesday. The BSE Sensex climbed 1,109.10 points, or 1.54%, to close at 73,033.78, while the NSE Nifty 50 gained 358.60 points, or 1.60%, to settle at 22,721.95.
The rally was supported by buying in information technology shares after quarterly results from HCL Technologies and Tata Consultancy Services drew investor attention. Comments from Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman regarding discussions around capital-gains and securities transaction taxes also contributed to market sentiment.
However, one strong session does not necessarily establish a sustained recovery. Investors will look for follow-through buying and fresh corporate earnings signals to assess whether the rebound can continue.
GIFT Nifty and Asian Markets in Focus
GIFT Nifty futures are an important early indicator for the Indian market because they trade outside regular domestic cash-market hours. Traders commonly use their movement to gauge the likely opening tone for the Nifty 50.
A lower GIFT Nifty reading can point to a weaker start, but it does not guarantee that Indian benchmarks will open lower or remain under pressure throughout the session. Global equity movements, currency changes, oil prices and domestic institutional flows can all alter the direction after the opening bell.
Asian markets are another key indicator. Weakness in regional technology stocks or renewed concerns about global inflation could weigh on sentiment, while a recovery in overseas equities may offer support.
Canara Bank Q2 Results: Key Details to Watch
Canara Bank is scheduled to consider its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, at a board meeting on October 14. The results will provide investors with an updated picture of the public-sector lender’s performance during the second quarter of FY2026–27.
Investors are likely to examine several indicators:
• Net interest income: The difference between interest earned on loans and investments and interest paid on deposits and borrowings.
• Net profit: Whether earnings growth is supported by core operations.
• Asset quality: Changes in gross and net non-performing assets.
• Provisions and credit costs: The amount set aside for potential loan losses.
• Deposit and loan growth: Trends in funding, lending and margins.
The actual figures should be taken from the bank’s official results announcement after publication. Expectations or pre-results estimates should not be treated as confirmed financial performance.
BHEL and Other Stocks on Investors’ Radar
Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL), a state-owned engineering and power-equipment manufacturer, may attract attention as investors track corporate announcements and the wider earnings season.
For BHEL, market participants typically monitor order inflows, project execution, revenue growth, operating margins and working-capital requirements. Any company-specific announcement should be checked against its official stock-exchange disclosures before being presented as a fresh development.
Investors may also track other companies scheduled to announce results or disclose material business updates. In an earnings-driven market, individual shares can move sharply even when the broader indices remain relatively stable.
Crude Oil, Inflation and the Rupee
Oil prices remain an important risk factor for India because the country imports a substantial share of its crude requirements. Higher oil prices can increase the import bill and put pressure on inflation, the rupee and corporate costs.
Investors are also assessing the implications of recent inflation data and Reserve Bank of India measures aimed at easing pressure on the currency. A weaker rupee can benefit some exporters but raise costs for companies dependent on imported inputs.
Developments in the Middle East could influence oil prices and broader risk sentiment. Any sharp movement in crude or the rupee may affect sectors differently, including aviation, oil marketing, energy, paints and information technology.
What Investors Should Watch Today
The main factors likely to shape Wednesday’s session are the latest GIFT Nifty signal, trends across Asian markets, crude oil prices, rupee movement, foreign-investor activity and company-specific earnings announcements.
A weaker opening, if confirmed, would not by itself establish the direction for the entire trading day. Investors should distinguish between opening indicators and confirmed market prices once trading begins.
Market disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Stock prices can be volatile, and investors should assess their own financial circumstances and risk tolerance.
Sensex, Nifty 50 Today: GIFT Nifty, Crude Oil and US-Russia Diesel Deal Among 5 Key Triggers
Indian stock markets are set for a closely watched session on Monday, October 12, as investors assess signals from GIFT Nifty, falling crude oil prices, the US-Russia diesel deal and the latest geopolitical developments.
Early market indicators pointed to a positive start for the Sensex and Nifty 50, following a recovery in the previous session. However, uncertainty surrounding global energy supplies, elevated bond yields and foreign investor selling could limit gains.
On Friday, October 9, the Nifty 50 closed at 22,520.45, gaining around 1.3%, while the BSE Sensex rose approximately 1.2% to 72,472.33. The rebound ended an eight-week losing streak for both benchmark indices.
Investors will now look for signs that the recovery can continue as the new trading week begins.
1. GIFT Nifty: A Positive Start in Focus
GIFT Nifty is an important early indicator of how Indian equity benchmarks may open. Its positive signal suggests that domestic shares could begin Monday’s session on a firm note.
However, GIFT Nifty movements do not guarantee the actual opening direction of the Sensex or Nifty 50. Global market swings, institutional trading and fresh geopolitical headlines can change sentiment before and during the session.
Traders will monitor whether early buying interest continues after the opening bell and whether the benchmarks can sustain their previous session’s gains.
2. US-Russia Diesel Deal and Energy Ceasefire
US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a Russian diesel supply arrangement has become an important factor for global energy markets.
Trump said Russia would supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel to the United States and global markets following discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The US also temporarily eased sanctions on Russian fuel to facilitate supplies.
The announcement has drawn criticism from some US lawmakers, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has argued that the arrangement could benefit Moscow.
Trump subsequently claimed that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure. However, the details and implementation of the proposed arrangement remained uncertain, with Ukraine seeking clarification and Russia yet to confirm the agreement in the reports available before Monday’s session.
For Indian markets, the potential impact will depend on whether these developments lead to a sustained improvement in energy supplies and lower prices.
3. Crude Oil Prices: A Key Risk for India
Oil prices eased on Monday amid expectations of additional Russian supplies. Brent crude was reported near $103.35 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude traded around $90.55 in early trading.
Despite the decline, crude remains expensive, and continuing tensions in the Middle East are keeping supply risks in focus.
India imports a substantial share of its crude oil requirements, making international oil prices an important influence on inflation, the rupee, corporate costs and the country’s import bill.
A sustained fall in crude could support market sentiment by easing cost pressures. Conversely, renewed disruptions to shipping routes or energy infrastructure could push prices higher and weigh on equities.
4. US Bond Yields, Inflation and the Rupee
Investors will also watch US Treasury yields, inflation expectations and movements in the Indian rupee against the US dollar.
Higher US bond yields can make American assets more attractive relative to emerging-market investments. This can put pressure on foreign portfolio investment flows into India and increase volatility in domestic equities.
Energy prices are another important consideration because a renewed increase in fuel costs could complicate efforts to control inflation.
A weaker rupee may also raise the cost of imported commodities, including crude oil. Investors will therefore assess whether global financial conditions become more supportive or remain a source of pressure for Indian shares.
5. IT Earnings, HCL Technologies and Institutional Flows
Corporate earnings will be another major driver as India’s September-quarter results season gathers pace.
HCL Technologies is among the companies in focus on Monday. Investors will look for updates on revenue growth, demand for technology services, margins and management commentary on spending by global clients.
The performance of major IT companies could influence sentiment across the technology sector after IT stocks helped support the previous session’s rebound.
Institutional activity will also matter. Foreign institutional investors have been selling Indian equities, while domestic institutional investors have helped provide support during periods of weakness.
A change in the balance between foreign selling and domestic buying could influence whether the latest recovery gains momentum.
What Should Investors Watch Today?
The Sensex and Nifty 50 enter Monday’s session with a positive opening signal, but the direction of the market will depend on how investors respond to global developments and domestic trading activity.
The main factors to monitor are GIFT Nifty, crude oil prices, the US-Russia diesel arrangement, global bond yields and the rupee, alongside corporate earnings and institutional flows.
A positive opening alone would not confirm a sustained rally. Investors will watch whether buying continues through the session and whether the benchmarks can hold on to their gains.
This article is for news and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice.
Indian Stock Market Today: GIFT Nifty Signals Recovery After Sell-Off; TCS Q2, Crude Oil and RBI Policy in Focus
India’s stock market is heading into Friday’s session after a sharp sell-off pushed the Sensex and Nifty 50 to their lowest closing levels in months. Early signals from GIFT Nifty pointed to a possible rebound, but investors remained cautious amid elevated crude oil prices, foreign fund outflows, a weaker rupee and uncertainty over global technology stocks.
The market’s direction on October 9 is likely to depend on five major factors: GIFT Nifty and Asian markets, the US technology sell-off, Tata Consultancy Services’ (TCS) September-quarter results, oil prices and the Reserve Bank of India’s tighter policy stance.
Sensex and Nifty 50: How the Market Closed on Thursday
Indian equities came under heavy selling pressure on Thursday, October 8. The BSE Sensex fell 1,045.46 points, or around 1.44%, to close at 71,593.24. The NSE Nifty 50 dropped 371.25 points, or 1.64%, to settle at 22,231.80.
The declines reflected broad-based weakness rather than pressure on just a handful of companies. Rising crude oil prices, concerns about inflation, higher global bond yields and continued selling by foreign investors weighed on sentiment. Smaller companies also faced pressure, with mid-cap and small-cap indices recording steeper declines than the benchmarks.
The Sensex’s close was reported as its lowest in about 32 months, while the Nifty 50 ended at an 18-month low. The sharp fall has put investors on alert for further volatility as the week’s final trading session begins.
1. GIFT Nifty Signals a Possible Positive Opening
GIFT Nifty was trading around 22,359–22,370 in early trade on Friday, indicating a potentially higher opening for the Sensex and Nifty 50 compared with Thursday’s close.
The signal offers some hope of a technical rebound after the previous session’s steep losses. Short-covering—when traders buy back shares to close bearish positions—can also contribute to a recovery after a sharp fall.
However, GIFT Nifty is an indicator, not a guarantee of how the cash market will perform. Investors will also monitor Asian markets, currency movements, crude oil and global bond yields after the opening bell.
A positive opening alone would not establish that the broader downtrend has ended. The market would need sustained buying and participation across sectors to demonstrate stronger recovery momentum.
2. US Technology Stocks and Global Markets
US markets delivered a mixed performance on Thursday. The Nasdaq Composite fell about 1.25%–1.3%, dragged down by technology shares, while the S&P 500 declined around 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher.
The weakness in technology stocks is important for Indian IT companies because their earnings depend heavily on spending by clients in the United States and other major international markets. Investors will look for signs that customers are continuing to approve technology projects, particularly traditional IT services and artificial-intelligence-related work.
Indian technology shares may therefore remain sensitive to movements in US-listed technology stocks and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) of Indian IT companies. Any sustained weakness in overseas technology shares could weigh on domestic IT sentiment, although individual companies may move differently depending on their earnings and outlook.
Global bond yields are another factor. Higher yields can make equities less attractive and raise concerns about borrowing costs and future economic growth. Investors will track whether yields continue to ease or rise again during Friday’s session.
3. TCS Q2 Results: Revenue, Profit and AI Business in Focus
Tata Consultancy Services is among the most closely watched stocks on Friday after announcing its results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026.
TCS reported consolidated revenue of ₹73,188 crore, up approximately 11.2% year-on-year, while net profit increased 15% to ₹13,884 crore. Its operating margin stood at 24%, and annualised revenue from artificial intelligence crossed $3 billion.
The company also reported total contract value of $9.6 billion for the quarter and announced a dividend of ₹12 per share. The record date for the dividend is October 14, 2026, according to the company’s results announcement.
Despite the growth in reported revenue and profit, investors will examine the quality and pace of that growth. TCS’s sequential revenue growth in constant-currency terms was 0.5%, its weakest September-quarter performance on that measure in three years, according to Reuters. The company also said customers continued to scrutinise discretionary technology programmes.
This creates two competing considerations for the stock: growth in profit and AI-related business on one side, and subdued sequential growth in traditional services on the other.
The results could influence sentiment across the wider IT sector, including Infosys, HCLTech, Wipro and Tech Mahindra, which are due to report their own quarterly numbers in the coming weeks.
4. Crude Oil Prices, the Rupee and Foreign Investor Selling
Oil remains one of the biggest risks for Indian equities. Brent crude rose above $104 a barrel during Thursday’s trading amid concerns about geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions. Higher oil prices can increase India’s import bill, put pressure on the rupee and add to domestic inflation.
The rupee also weakened against the US dollar, increasing concerns about imported inflation and the cost of overseas purchases. A sustained rise in oil prices could make it harder for Indian companies to manage costs and could complicate the inflation outlook.
Foreign institutional investors have also been selling Indian equities heavily. Reuters reported net foreign selling of approximately ₹46,990 crore over nine sessions, taking year-to-date outflows to a record level.
Continued foreign selling can add pressure to benchmark indices, particularly when global investors are reducing exposure to emerging markets. Domestic institutional buying may cushion some of the impact, but investors will watch the latest institutional flow data for signs of stabilisation.
Oil prices, the rupee and foreign flows are closely connected: higher oil prices can weaken the currency and worsen inflation concerns, while global uncertainty can encourage investors to move money away from riskier assets.
5. RBI’s Rate Hike and Stocks to Watch
The Reserve Bank of India raised its benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.5% and shifted its policy stance to “calibrated tightening,” signalling concern about inflation.
Higher interest rates can increase borrowing costs for businesses and households. Rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate, automobiles and some financial companies may therefore remain in focus. Investors will also consider whether tighter policy could affect consumption, investment and corporate earnings.
Apart from TCS, several stocks may attract attention on Friday:
• JSW Steel: The company reported a 5% year-on-year rise in crude steel production for the September quarter.
• Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories: Investors may monitor developments after a US Food and Drug Administration inspection resulted in two
• observations at its Andhra Pradesh facility.
• NCC: The company secured a road construction contract worth approximately ₹1,286 crore from the Hyderabad Growth Corridor.
• SML Mahindra: September commercial vehicle sales rose 32% year-on-year, while exports declined sharply.
• Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank: Their price movements may influence the benchmark indices because of their significant index weights.
These are stocks to monitor, not assured gainers. Company-specific announcements and broader market sentiment may produce different outcomes for each share.
What Should Investors Watch During Friday’s Session?
The first signal will be whether the indices hold any early gains indicated by GIFT Nifty. After that, investors will look for participation beyond a small number of heavyweight stocks, along with movements in IT, banking, metals, real estate and automobile shares.
Crude oil and the rupee will remain important macroeconomic indicators. Fresh foreign and domestic institutional flow data could also help explain whether buying interest is returning after Thursday’s sell-off.
A rebound is possible after such a steep decline, but volatility may remain elevated. Investors should avoid treating a positive opening as confirmation that the market has reached a bottom.
Market outlook: Friday’s session is likely to be driven by the balance between a possible technical recovery and continuing concerns about oil prices, inflation, interest rates and foreign selling. TCS’s results may provide a separate trigger for IT stocks, while global technology shares and Asian markets will influence overall risk appetite.
This article is for news and information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Stock Market Today: GIFT Nifty Signals Muted Start for Nifty 50, Sensex; TCS, HCL Tech, Ola Electric in Focus
Indian equity markets are likely to open on a cautious note on Thursday, October 8, after the Nifty 50 and Sensex ended sharply lower in the previous session following the Reserve Bank of India's unexpected interest-rate hike and a shift towards a tighter monetary policy stance.
GIFT Nifty futures were trading around 22,600.5, indicating a subdued opening for the Nifty 50, which closed at 22,603.05 on Wednesday. The Sensex had fallen 429.11 points, or 0.59%, to close at 72,638.70, while the Nifty declined 173.05 points, or 0.76%.
RBI rate hike weighs on investor sentiment
The RBI raised its benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% on Wednesday, marking its first rate increase in nearly four years. The central bank also changed its policy stance from "neutral" to "calibrated tightening", raising expectations that monetary conditions could remain restrictive for longer.
Higher interest rates can increase borrowing costs for companies and consumers and may put pressure on equity valuations, particularly when investors are already concerned about global inflation and rising crude oil prices.
Crude oil crosses $101 a barrel
Oil prices remain another major factor for Indian markets. Brent crude moved above $101 per barrel amid concerns over Middle East supplies and disruptions affecting shipping in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
Higher crude prices are particularly important for India because the country imports a large portion of its oil requirements. Expensive crude can increase inflationary pressure and put additional pressure on the rupee.
FII selling remains a concern
Foreign investors continued to sell Indian equities. Provisional data showed foreign investors sold around ₹6,121 crore worth of Indian shares on Wednesday, marking their ninth consecutive session of net selling.
Persistent foreign outflows, combined with higher global bond yields and a weaker rupee, could keep market sentiment cautious in the near term.
TCS in focus as earnings season begins
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is expected to remain one of the biggest stocks in focus as India's September-quarter earnings season gets underway.
Investors will closely watch TCS's quarterly results and management commentary for indications about global technology spending, demand from key markets and the outlook for the IT services sector. Reuters identified TCS as a key market focus for Thursday.
HCL Tech, Ola Electric among stocks in focus
HCL Technologies is also likely to attract attention after its shares declined 1.52% on Wednesday to ₹1,183.80. The stock underperformed the broader market during the session.
Ola Electric is another stock on investors' radar following recent corporate developments. Other stocks expected to remain in focus include Adani Enterprises, Tata Power, Jubilant FoodWorks and Varun Beverages.
Global markets offer mixed signals
Asian equities opened lower on Thursday, while elevated US Treasury yields continued to weigh on global risk sentiment. The US 10-year Treasury yield was around 5.3%, according to market reports, while Brent crude remained above $100.
US equities also ended lower in the previous session, adding to the cautious tone ahead of India's market opening.
What investors should watch today
Traders are likely to track the movement of the Nifty 50 and Sensex, crude oil prices, the rupee-dollar exchange rate, Asian markets, US bond yields and foreign institutional flows.
The market may also remain sensitive to comments from RBI officials and developments in the Middle East because higher oil prices could increase India's inflation risks.
For Thursday's session, 22,600 on the Nifty 50 will be an important near-term reference point after the index closed at 22,603.05 on Wednesday. Investors will also watch whether the index can recover towards the 22,800 resistance zone highlighted by market analysts.
Stock Market Today: GIFT Nifty Signals Weak Start for Sensex, Nifty Ahead of RBI Policy Decision
Indian equity markets are set for a cautious start on Wednesday, with GIFT Nifty pointing to a lower opening for the Sensex and Nifty 50 as investors await the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision later in the day.
The weak opening indication comes after the domestic benchmarks recovered strongly over the previous two sessions. Rising crude oil prices, continued foreign investor selling and uncertainty over the RBI's next interest-rate move are keeping sentiment under pressure.
GIFT Nifty signals weak opening
GIFT Nifty was indicating a decline of around 100 points in early trading, pointing towards a weaker start for India's benchmark indices.
The signal comes after the Nifty 50 gained about 1% on October 6, extending its recovery for a second consecutive session. However, the broader market trend remains under pressure after the index suffered a prolonged decline.
Global cues were mixed. U.S. equities remained relatively strong, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record levels, but Asian markets were weaker on Wednesday.
RBI policy decision in focus
The biggest domestic trigger for Wednesday's trading session is the RBI Monetary Policy Committee's decision.
The RBI is expected to announce its policy decision on Wednesday after its three-day meeting. Markets have largely priced in a 25-basis-point increase in the repo rate, which would take the rate above the current 5.25%.
Such a move would represent the first RBI rate hike since February 2023.
A Reuters poll found that nearly 60% of economists expected a 25-basis-point increase, while market instruments have also been reflecting expectations of a hike.
Investors will therefore be watching not only the rate decision but also the RBI's commentary on inflation, liquidity, economic growth and the future policy stance.
Crude oil remains a major risk
Oil prices are another major concern for Indian markets.
Brent crude returned above $101 a barrel, adding to concerns about India's import bill and inflation. Higher crude prices can also put pressure on the rupee and corporate margins.
India's dependence on imported crude makes oil prices particularly important for the domestic economy. A prolonged rise in energy costs could complicate the RBI's inflation-management efforts.
Rupee under pressure
The Indian rupee also remains under pressure ahead of the RBI decision.
The rupee closed at ₹96.42 against the U.S. dollar on October 6, its lowest level in about two months. Foreign equity outflows and higher global bond yields have contributed to the currency's weakness.
The RBI has been using several measures to manage liquidity and support the currency, including foreign-exchange operations and bond-market measures.
FII selling remains a concern
Foreign institutional investor outflows have been one of the biggest challenges for Indian equities in 2026.
Reuters reported that foreign investors had withdrawn around $27.8 billion from Indian equities during 2026, contributing to the market's prolonged weakness.
Higher U.S. Treasury yields have made dollar-denominated assets more attractive, while geopolitical uncertainty and elevated oil prices have further affected investor sentiment.
What investors will watch today
Apart from the RBI decision, traders are likely to track:
• RBI's repo-rate decision and policy stance
• Governor's comments on inflation and growth
• Brent crude prices
• Rupee-dollar movement
• FII and DII activity
• Asian market trends
• Banking and rate-sensitive stocks
The market's immediate reaction could depend heavily on whether the RBI's decision and guidance broadly match what investors have already priced in.
For now, the GIFT Nifty signal suggests a cautious opening, but the direction of the market through the session could be influenced significantly by the RBI's policy announcement and subsequent commentary.
Stock Market Today: Key Factors to Watch Before Trading on October 5
Indian stock markets are set for a potentially volatile session on Monday, October 5, after the benchmark indices suffered their eighth consecutive weekly decline. A stronger GIFT Nifty is pointing to a positive opening, but elevated crude prices, heavy foreign selling, high US bond yields and a weak rupee remain major risks for investors.
GIFT Nifty Signals Positive OpeningGIFT Nifty was trading around 22,610–22,640 in early trade, indicating that the Sensex and Nifty could open higher on Monday.
However, the positive opening signal comes after a prolonged period of weakness. The Nifty 50 closed at 22,421.95 on October 1, while the Sensex ended at 71,909.70.
The October 2 session was a market holiday for Gandhi Jayanti.
Nifty Has Lost for Eight Straight Weeks
The Nifty's eight-week losing streak is the longest in roughly 25 years.
During the holiday-shortened week, the Nifty fell about 3.1%, while the Sensex declined around 2.7%. Persistent foreign selling, expensive crude, a weaker rupee and rising global bond yields have kept investors cautious.
The latest decline has also pushed the broader market into an oversold zone, raising the possibility of a short-term technical rebound. However, analysts continue to warn that a rebound may not signal a confirmed trend reversal.
FII Selling Remains a Major Concern
Foreign institutional investors remained aggressive sellers.
FIIs sold around ₹9,484 crore of Indian equities on October 1, marking their sixth consecutive session of selling. Their combined selling over those six sessions exceeded ₹43,000 crore.
Domestic institutional investors provided a significant counterweight, buying more than ₹10,000 crore of equities during the same session.
The continuing gap between foreign selling and domestic institutional buying will remain one of the most important signals for the market this week.
Crude Oil Still Above $100
Oil prices remain a major risk for Indian equities.
Brent crude was recently trading around $102–$103 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was around $90–$92 a barrel.
The Middle East conflict and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz have kept concerns over global energy supplies elevated. OPEC+ also decided on October 4 to keep its November production targets unchanged, while actual output from key producers remains below official quotas.
For India, expensive crude can increase the import bill, put pressure on the rupee and complicate the inflation outlook.
US Bond Yields and Rupee Under Pressure
Global bond markets remain another major concern.
The US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5%, reaching levels that have increased pressure on emerging-market assets.
At the same time, the Indian rupee has weakened sharply against the US dollar. A stronger dollar combined with high US yields can encourage foreign investors to move money away from emerging markets such as India.
This combination could keep volatility elevated even if domestic economic indicators remain relatively stable.
Wall Street Gives Some Relief
US markets provided a more supportive signal going into Monday.
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.49%, the S&P 500 gained 0.73%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.19%.
The rally followed weaker-than-expected US employment data, which reduced expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term.
The positive Wall Street close and gains in Asian markets could provide some initial support to Indian equities.
Asian Markets Mostly Higher
Asian markets were broadly positive in early trading on Monday.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was up more than 1.7%, while Australia's ASX 200 also gained. Markets in China and South Korea were closed for holidays.
The positive Asian cues are supporting expectations of a stronger opening on Dalal Street.
However, domestic investors are likely to remain focused on crude oil, institutional flows and the rupee rather than relying only on the opening trend.
Nifty Support and Resistance Levels
Technical levels will be closely watched after the recent decline.
According to market analysts, 22,600 is an important resistance zone for the Nifty. A sustained move above this level could open the way toward 22,800.
On the downside, 22,200 is an immediate support level. A decisive break below it could expose the index to the 22,000 zone.
This makes the 22,200–22,600 range particularly important during Monday's session.
Bank Nifty Levels
Bank Nifty also remains under pressure after the recent correction.
The 53,800–53,700 region has been identified as an important support zone. On the upside, 55,000–55,200 could act as resistance.
A sustained move above 55,200 could improve the short-term technical setup, while a break below support could increase selling pressure.
RBI Policy Meeting Begins
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee meeting begins on October 5 and concludes on October 7, with the policy decision expected on October 7.
Investors will closely monitor the RBI's assessment of inflation, economic growth, the rupee and the impact of higher crude prices.
With global bond yields elevated and oil prices under pressure, the central bank's policy guidance could become an important market trigger.
Q2 Earnings Season Comes Into Focus
The September-quarter earnings season is also beginning.
Investors will watch company results and management commentary for signs of pressure from higher input costs, currency movements, weaker demand and geopolitical uncertainty.
Technology companies, banks, automobiles and other major sectors could see increased attention as companies begin reporting their second-quarter numbers.
What Traders Should Watch
The key factors likely to determine Monday's market direction are:
• GIFT Nifty and the opening gap
• FII and DII activity
• Brent crude and Middle East developments
• Rupee-dollar movement
• US Treasury yields
• RBI policy signals
• Q2 earnings expectations
• Nifty's 22,200 support and 22,600 resistance
A positive opening alone may not be enough to change the broader market trend. After eight consecutive weekly declines, investors are likely to watch whether buying continues through the session or whether early gains are sold into.
The immediate outlook therefore remains volatile and cautious, with global macroeconomic risks continuing to dominate sentiment.
Source attribution: Reuters, Associated Press, Financial Express, Moneycontrol, Economic Times, NDTV Profit, Livemint and other market reports.