Indian equity markets are set to resume regular trading on Monday after a strong weekly rally and a relatively quiet Diwali Muhurat session. Investors will be watching global market signals, movements in crude oil, the latest US employment figures and foreign investment flows to assess the direction of the Sensex and Nifty 50.
The previous regular trading session on Friday, November 6, saw the Nifty 50 close at 25,030.35, while the Sensex settled at 81,028.02. During Sunday’s special Muhurat trading session, both benchmarks ended slightly lower. The Nifty slipped 0.18 per cent to 24,986.40, while the Sensex declined 0.04 per cent to 80,999.40.
The market now faces the task of determining whether the recent recovery can continue or whether investors will book profits after several sessions of strong gains.
Here are five important factors that could influence Dalal Street on November 9.
1. GIFT Nifty: First indication of market sentiment
GIFT Nifty will be among the first indicators investors monitor before the domestic market opens at 9:15 am.
The index futures contract provides an indication of how overseas trading activity is influencing expectations for Indian equities. Its movement can reflect changes in global risk appetite, currency trends and developments in international markets while Indian exchanges are closed.
Investors will compare the latest GIFT Nifty level with the previous Nifty 50 closing mark of 25,030.35 to assess the possible opening direction.
However, the futures signal should not be treated as a guarantee of how the market will actually open. Sentiment can change during the pre-opening session as institutional orders and individual stock movements influence prices.
After the recent rally, the ability of the Nifty to sustain buying interest around its previous closing range will be closely watched.
2. US Nonfarm Payrolls: Strong jobs data changes interest-rate expectations
The latest US employment report is another major factor influencing global financial markets.
American employers added 165,000 jobs in October, considerably higher than the market expectation of approximately 65,000. The unemployment rate also declined from 4.2 per cent to 4.1 per cent.
The stronger employment figures indicate that the US labour market remains relatively resilient. However, they have also increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a tighter monetary policy for longer or consider another interest-rate increase.
Higher US interest rates can strengthen the dollar and make American fixed-income investments more attractive relative to emerging-market assets.
For India, this creates a potential challenge because foreign investors may reconsider their allocation to equities if global borrowing costs remain elevated.
The employment report has already been released, so Monday’s focus will be on how investors continue to interpret its implications for US monetary policy.
3. Crude Oil Prices: A key factor for India’s economy
International crude oil prices remain particularly important for the Indian stock market because India depends heavily on imported energy.
Brent crude was trading around $97.49 per barrel in early Monday trading, keeping energy costs firmly on investors’ radar.
A sustained decline in oil prices can benefit India by reducing the country’s import bill, easing pressure on the rupee and potentially improving the cost structure of several industries.
Lower crude prices may also support sectors such as aviation, paints, chemicals, logistics and other businesses that depend on petroleum-based inputs.
On the other hand, a renewed increase in oil prices could raise concerns about inflation, corporate expenses and the country’s external balance.
Investors will therefore monitor whether crude continues to ease or begins recovering from its recent decline.
4. Global Markets and Technology Stocks
International market performance will provide another important signal for Indian equities.
Asian markets began Monday on a firmer footing, with Japan’s Nikkei gaining around 2.5 per cent and broader regional shares also moving higher. US equity futures edged upward after a volatile period in technology stocks.
The recent global technology-sector correction has been driven partly by concerns about the cost of artificial intelligence investments, future profitability and possible regulatory changes.
This matters for Indian markets because global investment flows can influence technology shares, financial stocks and other heavyweight companies in the Nifty 50 and Sensex.
A recovery in international equities could support investor confidence, although uncertainty around technology valuations and interest rates may continue to create sudden price movements.
Market participants will also track the performance of Asian semiconductor and technology companies for clues about the strength of the global recovery.
5. FII-DII Activity and Domestic Inflation Expectations
Institutional investment activity will be another important factor determining whether the recent market rally can maintain its strength.
Foreign portfolio investors purchased approximately Rs 45,961 crore worth of Indian equities over five sessions in November, indicating a substantial return of overseas buying interest.
The buying has helped support domestic benchmarks after a period of uncertainty. However, investors will want to see whether these inflows continue rather than treating a short period of purchases as a permanent change in sentiment.
Domestic institutional investors have also been active in the market, and their buying or selling activity can influence the balance between demand and supply.
Meanwhile, India’s October retail inflation data, scheduled for November 12, will be an important upcoming domestic event.
The inflation reading could influence expectations about monetary policy and interest rates. A higher-than-expected figure may create concerns about borrowing costs, while a softer reading could improve expectations for economic and market conditions.
Important trading calendar update
Indian equity markets will remain open for normal trading on Monday, November 9, from 9:15 am to 3:30 pm.
However, Tuesday, November 10, will be a trading holiday on account of Diwali-Balipratipada. Investors should account for the holiday while planning short-term positions and settlement requirements.
The shorter trading week may also influence trading volumes and the timing of portfolio adjustments.
What investors should watch today
The market enters Monday with a combination of supportive and challenging signals. Lower oil prices, renewed foreign buying and stronger global equity sentiment may provide support, while higher US interest-rate expectations and uncertainty around technology valuations could limit enthusiasm.
The Nifty 50’s ability to hold its recent gains and the Sensex’s movement around the 81,000 level will remain important reference points.
Rather than relying on one indicator, investors will need to assess GIFT Nifty, crude oil, international markets and institutional flows together.
After a sharp recovery, the next phase for Indian equities may depend on whether buying interest broadens across sectors and whether global conditions remain supportive.
For November 9, the focus is therefore not just on the opening direction but on the strength and sustainability of market participation throughout the trading session.
